Handicapping Sports Betting Futures Plays
Honest sports bettors often dismiss futures wagers as sucker bets targeted at 'squares' looking for a huge payoff. For example, a predictable futures 'sucker bet' would be something like betting that Harvard will win the NCAA basketball tournament at 500/1 odds. Sure, the potential payback is huge but here's the problem--the "right odds" of Harvard winning the NCAA hoops tournament are astronomical, and certainly well in excess of 500/1. That means that from the outset this bet represents a poor wagering value.
Of more practical concern to the honest sports bettor is the necessity of tying up a part of your wagering bankroll for a long period of time. Additionally, once you've placed a futures bet the outcome is still subject to the predictable areas of concern for sports handicappers--injuries, trades, coaching changes, etc. It's hard enough to stay on top of these variables on a day-to-day basis, and predicting them over the full season is downright impracticable.
So why bet futures at all? More so than anything else, its essential to reckon of sports wagering not in terms of who wins or loses, but in terms of value. Properly utilized, future book wagers are often a fantastic source of value. Below are some of the ways I like to use future wagers:
The early bird gets the worm. The early bettor gets the value: Many sports books offer non-sports proposition bets, including entertainment based wagers like the Academy Awards. Someone who enjoys following the industry and maintenance up-to-date on whats happening in Hollywood can get a chose edge over the bookmaker, who doesn't have the time to stay juiced in to industry news and gossip.
Some books even take bets on the major awards like 'Best Picture' and 'Best Director' before the nominations are really announced. In this situation, a bettor who can read the 'buzz' on which films will be nominated can find substantially better values before the nominations are announced.
The nature of the film industry makes using a future wager in this manner very attractive. The release schedule of films is established in advance and is publicly known. The cut off date for award consideration is the end of the calendar year, so nothing can pop up and become a surprise after that. Of the hundreds of films that are released each year only a handful are legit Oscar contenders and with some work its simple to narrow those down further. After that its just a matter of finding the value.
It's also possible to leverage value in the 'stick and ball' sports with future wagers. There are obviously more variables in sports than in the entertainment industry and the top teams are never going to be found 'under the radar'. For example, you can already bet that the Patriots will win the 2010 Superbowl but you'll be hard pushed to find a value price on such a well loved team with the general public.
To find value on this sort of wager you need to look for 'dark horse' candidates. For example, at midseason you could have bet on the Carolina Hurricanes to win the 2009 Stanley Cup at prices as high as 25/1 or 30/1. Now, they're one of four teams remaining and are priced at 5/1 to 7/1 depending on the book.
This play wasn't based on any sort of profound revelation that a team that underachieved early in the season would turn it around, but rather on the potential value they presented. In other words, the 'right odds' were far less than the number offered at the time the bet was placed. At these high prices, its possible to isolate a few potential 'dark horse' candidates and should any pan out they present a variety of opportunities to hedge and lock in profits.
Also, don't forget to consider 'the field'. Many futures wagers lump a number of teams or competitors together as 'the field' and offer a single price to bet them all. Occasionally, the quick thinking handicapper can find unique value situations. For example, after Dale Earnhardt's tragic death in 2001 some sportsbooks continued to offer a 'field' position on rookie of the year. A bettor who followed NASCAR closely would have quickly realized that Kevin Harvick--who replaced Earnhardt in his Richard Childress racing Chevy--qualified for the 'rookie of the year' award and could have bet the field at prices as high as 15/1. After he won his first race, the price for 'the field' dropped to 2/1 and by midseason 'the field' was a -250 favorite.
This is obviously a best case example, but there have been similar conditions that were still excellent value plays but didn't work out perfectly like the Harvick situation. Several years ago it wasn't uncommon to find a field bet on NASCAR road races that allowed you to bet several of the road course specialists like Ron Fellows, Boris Said and Scott Pruett with one bet. You wont be able to take advantage of the field bet often, but if you keep your eyes open and reckon out of the box it can be very profitable when it does occur.
As a postscript, I want to emphasize the importance on shopping around any futures play for the best price. Shopping points is a smart thing to do on any wager, but the differences from book to book are frequently most extreme with futures plays. A small legwork can yield a substantially better price and the resulting better value.
Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer specializing in sports handicapping, horse racing, journey and falconry. He is a staff handicapper for Anatta Sports where he is in charge of as long as daily free sports picks to a number of websites and broadcast media outlets. He lives in Las Vegas with three Jack Russell Terriers and a wombat.